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Which Primary Schools Will Be Harder to Enter After the 2026 P1 Vacancy Cuts?

16 May 2026

Our overview post gave the macro picture: P1 vacancies fell −3.6% for 2026, tracking a −3.1% drop in the birth cohort. MOE is right-sizing supply to a smaller pool of children.

But a national average tells you nothing about your school. The cut isn’t spread evenly, and neither is demand. This post drills from that macro number down to all 73 schools that changed: does each change actually matter?

To gauge demand we lean on Phase 2C. It’s not the only phase, but it’s the biggest open one. A school oversubscribed in 2C that’s now cutting places gets even harder to enter. In this post we find out which schools are harder/easier.

Three things to keep in mind:

  • Phase 2C has a 40-place floor. Schools already at it (Frontier, Rulang, etc) can’t cut 2C further, so the reduction comes from earlier phases. 2C balloting stays as tight as before; siblings and alumni get fewer slots.
  • 8 schools here are GEP-2027 centres (Ahmad Ibrahim, Clementi, etc). From 2026, families who’d have aimed for the old 9 GEP schools may target these instead, possibly lifting demand.
  • Township demographics, which we cover in depth next.

The demographic lens

Last year’s 2C demand is the cleanest signal, but it’s backward-looking. The forward signal is cohort size, and it’s shifting fast by area (SingStat 5-9 year old data).

Some changes in township for these 5-to-9-year-old population over 5-year and 1-year periods:

  • Sengkang −9.9% (5Y), −3.6% (1Y). The decade-old BTO wave is aging out.
  • Punggol −0.8% (5Y) but −3.4% (1Y). Just turned the corner; the decline is sharp.
  • Tampines +29.2% (5Y), +4.8% (1Y). The only mature OCR town still genuinely growing.
  • Tengah: Zero in 2023, ~1,060 in 2025. The blockbuster new town.

So: marginally oversubscribed Sengkang/Punggol schools may ease back toward the ballot line; heavily oversubscribed schools (>150%) stay tight everywhere; and cuts at undersubscribed Bukit Batok / Choa Chu Kang schools may reverse within 2-3 years as Tengah overflows.

Schools that will be more competitive (19)

These cut total vacancies despite already being oversubscribed in Phase 2C last year. Demand didn’t drop; the spots did. Sorted by how oversubscribed they were.

School Area Change 2C Vacancy 2C Applied % Remarks
Maha Bodhi Geylang -30 49 255% SAP, perennially balloted. Cut concentrates demand.
Rulang Jurong West -30 40 245% 2C at the floor; cut hits earlier phases, harder for siblings/alumni.
Red Swastika Bedok -30 41 227% 2C at the floor, heavy oversubscription.
Punggol Green Punggol -30 58 203% Punggol’s most oversubscribed school. 203% won’t ease even with the cohort dip. Stays a ballot.
Shuqun Jurong West -20 41 193% 2C at the floor; still a heavy ballot.
Tao Nan Marine Parade -30 45 180% Top SAP, perennial 2C ballot.
Frontier Jurong West -30 40 165% 2C at the floor; cut hits P1/2A.
Horizon Punggol -30 50 158% Cut sharpens 2C competition.
Valour Punggol -30 57 154% Cut tightens entry.
Nanyang Bukit Timah -30 42 150% Top SAP. Cut concentrates demand.
Pasir Ris Pasir Ris -30 41 144% 2C at the floor; cut hits earlier phases.
Westwood Jurong West -30 53 143% Cut sharpens competition.
Jurong West Jurong West -30 59 131% Oversubscribed and a GEP-2027 centre. Pressure builds further.
Bukit Panjang Bukit Panjang -30 61 128% Cut tightens entry.
Punggol Hougang -10 59 127% Hougang’s cohort now declining; 127% may ease toward 100% but stays tightish.
Paya Lebar Methodist Girls’ Hougang -30 89 124% Girls-only affiliated. Cut tightens entry; affiliated priority still applies.
Compassvale Sengkang -30 96 117% Just over the line. Sengkang’s shrinking cohort could pull it below 100%.
Hougang Hougang -10 98 117% Small cut nudges entry tighter.
Rivervale Sengkang -20 96 116% Thin oversubscription; Sengkang’s decline likely brings it near 100%. Light ballot at most.

Other schools that cut places (42)

Demand here was below supply in 2025, often with places left at Phase 3. Unless noted, the cut just trims slack and doesn’t change entry difficulty. The remarks call out only the exceptions worth watching.

School Area Change 2C Vacancy 2C Applied % Remarks
Clementi Clementi -80 231 37% 145 places empty at 2C(S), 9 at Phase 3. Cut fits 2025 demand, but it’s a GEP-2027 centre, so watch for new demand.
Fernvale Sengkang -40 156 46%  
Jurong Jurong East -40 121 40%  
Lianhua Bukit Batok -40 242 11% Among the most undersubscribed nationally, but sits next to Tengah. Some uplift likely within 2-3 years as the new town overflows.
Pei Tong Clementi -40 220 14%  
Tampines North Tampines -40 191 31% Undersubscribed despite hot Tampines.
Yumin Tampines -40 201 5% Deeper cuts may follow.
Anchor Green Sengkang -30 155 15%  
Bedok Green Bedok -30 195 15%  
Boon Lay Garden Jurong West -30 135 26%  
CHIJ (Kellock) Bukit Merah -30 123 46% Girls-only affiliated; still below half-subscribed.
Cantonment Bukit Merah -30 116 25%  
Corporation Jurong West -30 109 21%  
De La Salle Choa Chu Kang -30 143 80% Healthy demand. Cut could push into balloting in 2026, especially as Tengah overflows into Choa Chu Kang.
Edgefield Punggol -30 178 15%  
Endeavour Sembawang -30 174 39%  
First Toa Payoh Toa Payoh -30 151 7%  
Gan Eng Seng Bukit Merah -30 116 15%  
Greendale Punggol -30 128 19%  
New Town Queenstown -30 178 12%  
North Spring Sengkang -30 120 34%  
North Vista Sengkang -30 136 26%  
Northoaks Sembawang -30 201 5%  
Oasis Punggol -30 105 56% Half-subscribed; cut moves toward tighter entry.
Palm View Sengkang -30 165 51% GEP-2027 centre; demand may shift up.
Punggol View Punggol -30 77 73% Cut plus GEP-2027 centre status may push into balloting.
Seng Kang Sengkang -30 127 9%  
Si Ling Woodlands -30 118 22%  
Springdale Sengkang -30 92 72% Moderately popular; cut may tighten 2C balloting.
St. Anthony’s Canossian Bedok -30 164 20% Girls-only affiliated, but low 2C demand.
St. Stephen’s Bedok -30 183 40% Boys-only affiliated; below half-subscribed.
Teck Whye Choa Chu Kang -30 144 16% Tengah overflow may reverse this within 2-3 years.
Unity Choa Chu Kang -30 143 38% Tengah watch.
West Grove Jurong West -30 137 30%  
White Sands Pasir Ris -30 102 77% Moderately popular; cut may push into balloting.
Yew Tee Choa Chu Kang -30 144 47% GEP-2027 centre plus Tengah overflow; demand may shift up.
Yishun Yishun -30 122 41%  
Yuhua Jurong East -30 174 15%  
Xishan Yishun -20 146 45%  
Casuarina Pasir Ris -10 64 47%  
Fuhua Jurong East -10 119 26%  
Park View Pasir Ris -10 110 38%  

Schools that added places (12)

The question is whether the extra class eases competition. If demand was strong, the same pool eats the new spots. If demand was soft, the addition just sits on more empty seats.

School Area Change 2C Vacancy 2C Applied % Remarks
Maris Stella High Toa Payoh +60 62 200% Going co-ed; new girls applicants likely absorb the extra class. Don’t expect easier entry.
Bukit View Bukit Batok +40 202 46% Not even half-subscribed, but on the Tengah edge; the +40 anticipates overflow more than current need.
Chongzheng Tampines +40 125 102% Just oversubscribed. +40 eases pressure, but Tampines added 680 kids last year, so easing is likely temporary.
Gongshang Tampines +40 44 266% Heavily oversubscribed. +40 helps, but demand dwarfs supply and the Tampines cohort is still growing.
Tampines Tampines +40 131 64% Fastest-growing town and a GEP-2027 centre. Extra class absorbs growth and new interest.
Jiemin Yishun +30 101 38% Undersubscribed; entry stays easy.
Pioneer Jurong West +30 332 58% Relocated to Tengah (cohort 0→1,060 in 2 years) and a GEP-2027 centre. Easy entry probably won’t last past 2027.
Ahmad Ibrahim Yishun +20 185 17% Severely undersubscribed, but a GEP-2027 centre; the +20 likely anticipates centre demand.
Peiying Yishun +20 105 50% Half-subscribed; entry stays comfortable.
Bendemeer Kallang +10 133 20% Token +10; no change.
Farrer Park Kallang +10 129 19% Like Bendemeer; easy entry continues.
Kong Hwa Geylang +10 49 241% Heavily oversubscribed every year. +10 is token; balloting stays the norm.

Key Takeaways

  • A small group genuinely gets harder. SAP and heavily-oversubscribed schools whose demand pool isn’t shrinking: Maha Bodhi, Tao Nan, Nanyang, Kong Hwa, Gongshang, Punggol Green, Horizon, Valour. A 3-10% cohort dip doesn’t rescue a 200%+ ballot.
  • Marginal Sengkang/Punggol schools may ease back. Compassvale (117%), Rivervale (116%) and Punggol (127%) sit close enough to 100% that the cohort decline could pull them out of meaningful balloting, even after the cuts.
  • 42 cuts are just bookkeeping. Most cut schools were undersubscribed in 2025, often with Phase 3 leftovers. MOE is aligning supply to demand, and the demographics confirm it.
  • Watch Bukit Batok / Choa Chu Kang and Tampines. Tengah appeared with 1,060 5-to-9-year-olds; cuts at Lianhua, Teck Whye, Unity and Yew Tee may reverse within 2-3 years, and De La Salle (80%) could ballot sooner. Tampines stays undersupplied even after +120, so expect more additions in 2027-2028.
  • Most “added” schools were already undersubscribed. Eight of the 12 had under 60% applied, so the extra class just widens a comfortable pool. The real-demand adds are Maris Stella High (co-ed), Gongshang and Chongzheng (Tampines), and Kong Hwa (Geylang); Bukit View is the Tengah play.
  • Watch the GEP-2027 centres. Eight schools here are designated centres: three added (Ahmad Ibrahim, Pioneer, Tampines), five cut (Clementi, Jurong West, Palm View, Punggol View, Yew Tee). If parents shift toward them in 2026, the cut group could end up tighter than 2025 demand suggests.

For the overall numbers and area-level view, see the overview post. For the full planning-area demographic data, see where Singapore’s young families are moving.

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