Phase 2C takes 4 days to be completed. Some apply on Day 1, and some wait till the last day to apply. *It is some kind of strategy.*

But have you wondered: *How many have and have not applied so far?*

## Estimating how many who have not applied

We captured the following aggregated data on day 2:

- Total Taken: 23,435
- Total Applicants : 11,047
- Total Vacancy: 41,888
- Remaining Vacancy AFTER Phase 2C: 9,926 (24%)

`Taken + Applicants in 2C = 23,435 + 11,047 = 34,482`

If there are 34,482 children born in 2014, then 100% have applied on day 2 😄

But some 🃏 *players* don’t show their hands till the last day.

Question now is, how many children were born in 2014?

Fortunately, we have that population statistics.

`Children born in 2014 = 37,967`

With that,

`Number who have NOT applied = 37,967 - 34,482 = 3,485`

`Total who should apply in Phase 2C = 37,967 - 23,435 = 14,532`

`% who have NOT applied = 3,485/14,532 = 24%`

In conclusion, **there are 3,485 children (24%) who have NOT applied** as of Day 2 of Phase 2C.

## UPDATE: Day 3

We calculated similarly, but with Day 3 results.

- Total Taken: 23,412
- Total Applicants : 13,603

`Taken + Applicants in 2C = 23,412 + 13,603 = 37,015`

`% who have NOT applied = 37,967 - 37,015 = 952`

`% who have NOT applied = 952/(37,967 - 23,412) = 7%`

In conclusion, **there are 952 children (7%) who have NOT applied** as of Day 3 of Phase 2C.

## UPDATE: Final

This is merely to find out how far off we are in the *expected vs actual* number of applicants.

- Total Taken: 23,386
- Total Applicants : 15,151

`Taken + Applicants in 2C = 23,386 + 15,151 = 38,537`

The actual number of resident children who applied (from Phase 1 till 2C) is **38,537**.

But from data.gov, we know that there are **37,967** resident children born in 2014.

Somehow, there are **570 more** who applied. They could be children who turned PR/Citizen in the last few years. That is **1.5% more**.

## Summary

- Day 2 - 3,485 (24%) have NOT applied
- Day 3 - 952 (7%) have NOT applied
- 1.5% more resident children than assumed population data