24 July 2020
This is the extracted numbers of live birth from data.gov, comprising of both Citizens and PR.
| Born in | Register in | Children born | Vacancies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 2018 | 38,641 | 41,820 |
| 2013 | 2019 | 35,681 | 39,058 |
| 2014 | 2020 | 37,967 | 41,888 |
| 2015 | 2021 | 37,861 | - |
P1 registration in 2020 is for children born in 2014. That is the year of the horse, and there are 37,967 such children. That is:
Next year P1 registration, there are 37,861 children born in 2015 – Year of the sheep, and also SG50 babies.
Vacancies are adjusted accordingly.
But 2020 has around the same vacancies as 2018, though the number of children is 2% lower.
We expect the number of vacancies for 2021 P1 registration to be largely the same as 2020 – a nice number 41,888.
Data.gov provides live birth of only residents, without further breakdown into Singapore citizens and permanent residents (PR).
However, SingStat has a breakdown for population. It is for the total population, not live birth, for each year.
Using the recent years, a rough estimate is that for every 100 residents:
In 2015, there are 37,861 resident children born. That would roughly be 86% = 32,560 Singapore citizen children. As we all know, the registration phases is advantageous to citizens.